The Day After the Midterms: Post - Election Analysis & Outlook

The Day After the Midterms: Post - Election Analysis & Outlook

Nov 07, 2018

Client Alert

Brownstein Client Alert, November 7, 2018

Score one for conventional wisdom. Heading into Election Night, political analysts stung by the results of the 2016 election were reluctant to make definitive predictions. The consensus view, however, prevailed: Democrats were expected to ride historic trends, a wave of Republican retirements, and an energized base back to power in the House of Representatives and several state capitals; while Republicans were expected to hold, and possibly expand, their majority in the U.S. Senate. This is what happened. Now the task is to interpret, but not over-interpret, the results. As we saw in 2012, the outcome of a midterm is a weak predictor of the following election, so we caution against making early predictions about 2020. Still, some clear trends are worth noting.

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