Election Results
Based on election results as of 2 p.m. ET.
Following record-breaking turnout in yesterday’s midterm elections, control of the 118th Congress remains unknown. Even as polling in the two weeks leading up to Election Day suggested Republican victories in both the House and Senate, the long-predicted red wave did not come to pass.
On the House side, prior to Election Day, Republicans were confident of a sizable victory, though Democratic leadership warned that several key races were still in play. While Republicans still appear poised to take control of the House, it will be by far smaller margins than previously expected. With a number of races still too close to call, Democratic leadership has indicated there may still be a path to a continued, but very narrow, majority.
On the Senate side, as of this writing, the races in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia are all too close to call. However, Arizona seems to be leaning toward a victory for incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) and Nevada seems to be leaning toward Adam Laxalt (R), who is challenging incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D). As a result, control of the Senate once again seems to run through Georgia, where neither incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) nor Herschel Walker (R) have reached the 50% threshold needed to avoid a Dec. 6 runoff.
Either way, it seems that Congress will either be under divided control, or will be under Republican control, with very narrow margins. Even if Republicans control Congress, they will not be able to pass significant partisan policy until at least 2025, given the Senate’s legislative filibuster. Instead, any legislation enacted into law in the upcoming end-of-year lame-duck session or 118th Congress will require considerable compromise from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.
In both situations, the Biden administration will likely have to curb its congressional agenda, as the president turns to executive action and the regulatory process to enact meaningful change.
Given that control of Congress is still unknown, this alert discusses the implications on tax policy in the lame-duck session and during the 118th Congress under the two most likely scenarios as of this writing: (1) a Republican-controlled Congress, with narrow margins in both chambers; or (2) divided control of Congress, with a Democratic majority in the Senate and a Republican majority in the House.
Click here for the full election results summary and analysis.
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