With an impending Republican leadership trifecta under President-elect Donald Trump, the GOP will be the primary drivers of defense policy and spending until at least fiscal year 2027 (FY27). This is projected to result in a 3%–5% increase to defense spending toplines and a focus on enhancing efficiencies as the president-elect and Republican members of critical defense committees have been consistent in their push for more effective defense spending to meet national security objectives. To facilitate this change, the incoming Trump administration and congressional Republicans are expected to fill committee and executive leadership positions with individuals who are willing to disrupt the department and current acquisition process to spend defense dollars more effectively.
While the president-elect ran on a platform that embraced an “America First” foreign and defense policy, congressional Republicans will need to navigate differing opinions as some members still favor a U.S. defense strategy that prioritizes support for international partners and a coalition approach to deterrence. Some members have also consistently opposed any increases to government spending or the implementation of cuts, which may influence the Trump administration’s defense spending strategy. These dynamics will play an outsized role within House dynamics as the historically slim Republican majority will require more negotiations to enact spending and policy objectives.
Trump Defense Priorities
During his first term and recent campaign, the president-elect advocated for increased defense spending and government budget cuts to meet national security objectives. Now with a Republican-controlled Congress, the president-elect and Republican allies will be better able to advance their national security objectives. The most notable areas of defense that are likely to see support from the incoming administration and Congress include:
Military and Nuclear Modernization
During the first Trump administration, they advocated for significant spending increases to modernize the U.S. military and nuclear arsenal. These goals were set to better prepare the United States for great power competition with China and to maintain a robust nuclear deterrence. With Republican congressional support, the incoming Trump administration will likely seek increased funding for ongoing nuclear weapons systems modernization, the continued development of hypersonic capabilities and the modernization of existing nuclear delivery systems. These investments are expected to be coupled with increased funding for military readiness, upgrades to legacy platforms and exploration of new technologies that will enhance combat effectiveness.
Missile Defense Systems
During his campaign, the president-elect emphasized a need for greater U.S. missile defense capabilities to respond to threats from North Korea, Iran and China. This effort is supported by Republican members who have expressed interest in funding such programs as ground-based missile defense systems, the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system and broader space-based missile detection and defense systems, all of which are likely to be acted on by the Armed Services and Defense Appropriations committees. While specifically mentioned by the president-elect during the campaign, support for increasing spending to improve the North American continental missile defense system remains uncertain.
Cyber and Emerging Technologies
In the first Trump administration, the President and Republican members of Congress were focused on enhancing the U.S. military’s adoption of emerging technologies to counter modern threats. These included the exploration of emerging technologies such as AI to improve military modernization. The president-elect and Republican members of Congress have expressed an interest in pursuing the development of AI augmented weapons systems and enhanced cyber capabilities during the next administration to maintain U.S. military dominance in these fields.
Defense Industrial Base
During the first Trump administration, the president-elect maintained close relationships between his administration and defense contractors and manufacturers while exploring a strategy for improving and expanding the U.S. defense industrial base. His administration is expected to continue building partnerships with private industry and encouraging competition as defense spending and contracts will likely increase during his second term. Globally, these efforts will likely be supported by increased arms sales while building more defense autonomy among allies and partners. Domestically, President-elect Trump and a Republican Congress are also expected to further efforts to strategically build the defense industrial base. These are likely to emulate the Trump administration’s previous National Defense Strategy that identified the need to leverage private-public partnerships and international cooperation on supply chains to meet military objectives necessities.
Congressional Dynamics
Under the current Congress, the Republican-led House and Democratic-led Senate had significant differences in their topline defense spending in their competing versions of the FY25 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and Defense Appropriations bills. Prior to conference, the toplines of the House versions of the NDAA and Defense Appropriations bills were $895.2 billion and $833 billion and the Senate versions were $923.3 billion and $852.2, respectively. These discrepancies resulted from the House bills being consistent with the spending caps set by the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) while the Senate Armed Services (SASC) and Defense Appropriations (SAC-D) committees adopted a bipartisan amendment to add $25 billion to the budget. With the release of the conferenced version of the NDAA, the House position prevailed and authorized defense spending for FY25 will remain consistent with FRA spending levels. However, defense appropriations will not be decided until the new Congress takes over, so this debate will continue in the new year.
Having won House and Senate majorities, Republicans will be able to appoint leadership positions in the House and Senate Armed Services (HASC, SASC) and Defense Appropriations committees (HAC-D, SAC-D) to better facilitate the incoming Trump administration’s national security objectives. In flipping control of the Senate, former Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has been selected to lead SAC-D and current SASC Ranking Member Roger Wicker (R-MS) will become the SASC chairman. Sen. McConnell has specifically sought to increase defense spending to meet increasing threats from Russia and China and argued against cuts to the defense budget that could hinder a response to these challenges. Ranking Member Wicker has also supported these positions and been a champion of increased defense spending focused on modernization efforts within the military. Trump’s election and Republican majorities in Congress will likely allow the GOP to pursue the spending goals necessary to achieve these objectives, while also seeking greater efficiencies within the department and providing a more streamlined process for Senate confirmations of political appointees.
Because Republicans will hold a slim majority in the House, they will need to overcome internal differences regarding spending and budget cuts to fully enable the president-elect’s agenda. The current House majority experienced difficulties increasing spending due to disagreements over legislative compromises with Democrats in the Senate and the White House. A Republican trifecta may lead to a more unified legislative approach if Republican leadership can navigate internal differences regarding spending. Fiscally conservative members such as Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) may remain unwilling to support increases to defense spending while others may be hesitant to support non-defense budget cuts that would negatively impact their districts in favor of raising defense spending toplines. To further complicate the GOP legislative agenda, some support from Senate Democrats will still be required to meet the 60-vote threshold to avoid a filibuster, as Republicans only control 53 seats in the Senate.
Department of Government Efficiency
On Nov. 12, President-elect Trump announced that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will co-lead the new “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) with the goal of reducing governmentwide spending and increase efficiencies. In a statement on X, Trump said DOGE will work outside the government to “dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures and restructure Federal Agencies.” Details on how DOGE will operate have been limited, although Trump has noted the department will partner with the White House and Office of Management and Budget to “drive large-scale structural reform and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before.” The statement suggested the department would function outside the government rather than becoming a new federal agency, which would require congressional approval.
Ramaswamy has also said DOGE will soon begin “crowdsourcing examples of government waste, fraud and abuse” and pursue a “massive downsizing” of the government, suggesting defunding programs that Congress has not reauthorized. In an appearance on Fox News on Nov. 17, Ramaswamy said he expects massive reductions to government agencies, with some being “deleted outright.” Musk also said he wanted to “delete the mountain of choking regulations that do not serve the greater good” and suggested he could find more than $2 trillion in savings, nearly a third of annual government spending, without offering specifics.
On Nov. 20, Ramaswamy and Musk released an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal outlining their objectives for DOGE in greater detail. According to the article, the department’s core strategies include rescinding federal regulations, cutting administrative staff and achieving substantial cost savings. They plan to leverage recent Supreme Court decisions, such as West Virginia v. EPA and Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, which limit agency regulatory powers and overturn judicial deference to agency interpretations. They argue these rulings will enable the president to use executive action to pause or nullify thousands of regulations they deem overreaching, arguing, “The president owes lawmaking deference to Congress, not to bureaucrats.”
Next Steps
The successes of the Republican party in this year’s election should allow Congress and the Trump administration to meet Republican national security objectives. Consistent with broader Republican strategies, this spending is likely to be facilitated by increasing efficiencies, making budget cuts to areas outside of defense and adhering to FRA caps for non-defense spending. These goals will require some Democratic support in the Senate to reach the 60-vote threshold and bypass the legislative filibuster. Congressional Democrats will likely seek to use this leverage to influence policy back in their direction. Additionally, Senate Republicans are advocating for the first budget reconciliation package to include a boost to defense spending, which would have to be accomplished through mandatory funding streams instead of discretionary.
While DOGE has also emphasized a need for “drastic reductions in federal head counts,” linking staff cuts to the scale of unauthorized regulations, it is unlikely these recommendations will be supported by congressional Republicans if applied to the Department of Defense (DOD). However, there will likely be greater accountability from DOGE and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on how funds are spent within DOD and whether DOD can pass its next audit. While critical of defense spending for “woke” programs such as DEI and abortion care for service members, the president-elect and congressional Republicans have been advocates for increasing defense spending to expand and modernize the military. Significant cuts to DOD would impede the president-elect’s national security objectives and would inhibit his goals of enhancing the American defense industrial base.
Brownstein will continue to track defense policy and appointments throughout the next Trump administration. Please reach out to the authors of this alert if you would like to discuss anything in this alert further.
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