Election 2025: Redistricting Battlegrounds

An unprecedented mid-decade remapping process is already reshaping the 2026 House battlefield. Below is a concise inventory of what has happened, what is being challenged and what is likely next, plus the practical seat implications for each move. 

The Path for Increasing Republican Seats

Texas: In August, Texas enacted a mid-decade congressional redraw in a special session. The plan concentrates Democratic voters and extends GOP advantages in fast-growing suburbs around Houston, Dallas–Fort Worth and Austin. Early nonpartisan tallies suggest the map hardens several GOP seats that were more competitive under 2024 lines. Multiple civil rights groups immediately sued, arguing the plan dilutes minority voting strength and violates the Voting Rights Act and the Constitution. Expect an aggressive defense from the state and a fast-moving preliminary-injunction fight that could determine whether the map is used in 2026. 

North Carolina: The General Assembly adopted new congressional districts in late October. Compared to the 2024 map, the new lines increase the number of likely Republican seats by unpacking Democratic voters in the Triangle and Charlotte and by reconfiguring several eastern districts. This change alone could shift two to three seats toward the GOP if it survives court review. 

Ohio: After months of commission deliberations, Ohio approved a new congressional plan in September. The map shores up several Republican-held seats around Cincinnati, Dayton and central Ohio and nudges one or two Democratic-held seats into more competitive territory. Reform advocates are already signaling litigation and are simultaneously pursuing a separate statewide anti-gerrymandering amendment for 2026 to constrain future partisan rewrites. 

Missouri: In late September, lawmakers finalized a mid-decade map that protects the GOP’s current six-to-two advantage by strengthening the two narrowest Republican seats centered on the Kansas City and St. Louis suburbs. Voting-rights groups and Democrats are backing a 2026 initiative to restore stronger redistricting guardrails that would limit such mid-cycle changes. 

Indiana: Legislative leaders have teed up a special session to consider congressional changes before the 2026 cycle, citing population shifts and competitiveness concerns. Observers consider a session of this type unusual in Indiana, and it is already drawing scrutiny from good-government groups. Timing and scope will determine whether any resulting plan faces a state-court attack under Indiana’s constitution. 

The Path for Increasing Democratic Seats

California: Voters approved Proposition50 on Nov. 5, 2025, authorizing a one-time override of the state’s independent citizen commission and enabling the use of a legislature-drawn congressional map beginning in 2026. Drafts of the plan circulated during the campaign showed Democrats attempting to convert roughly five currently Republican-held districts by reconfiguring portions of Orange and San Diego counties and the Central Valley, while also fortifying several competitive Democratic seats—though legal challenges are assured. If the map takes effect as sketched, the likely impact is five additional seats for Democrats. 

Virginia: Democrats advanced a constitutional amendment that would allow the legislature to temporarily redraw Virginia’s court-drawn congressional map for use in 2026. A Richmond judge rejected an initial GOP bid to block the process, which means Democrats can continue moving the amendment toward the 2026 session. If they complete the two-session passage requirement, Democrats will likely target one to two additional Democratic-leaning seats by realigning portions of the Richmond suburbs and Hampton Roads. 

Maryland: Gov. Wes Moore has created an advisory commission to examine the current map and recommend adjustments. While Maryland already leans strongly Democratic, even small boundary changes in the Baltimore and D.C. suburbs could turn one marginal seat more safely blue ahead of 2026. Any legislative action would immediately draw litigation from Republicans, who argue the current map already stretches constitutional limits. 

New York: After the 2024 cycle produced only modest gains, New York Democrats are openly weighing additional map changes through the state’s independent commission and courts, though a new map is unlikely before 2026 because of constitutional constraints. Party strategists are focused on Long Island and the Hudson Valley, where slight adjustments could convert or shore up two to three seats. The legal pathway runs through the state constitution’s anti-gerrymandering provisions and an appeals court that has recently been skeptical of overt partisanship, so any push will be calibrated and lawyered from the outset. 

The Litigation Landscape and Why It Matters 

Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is in flux: Several active cases in the lower courts challenge remedial majority-minority districts created after Allen v. Milligan, and conservative litigants are pressing new theories that would narrow Section 2’s application to redistricting. While the Supreme Court has not yet agreed to a case that squarely revisits Section 2 in this posture, multiple petitions are expected for this term. A decision curtailing Section 2 could make it easier for states to dismantle or avoid drawing majority-minority districts, which would enable more aggressive partisan seat maximization in the South and parts of the Midwest. 

Partisan-gerrymandering claims are state law fights: Since the federal courts will not police partisan gerrymanders after Rucho v. Common Cause, these disputes are playing out under state constitutions, commissions and initiative rules. That is why Pennsylvania’s judicial retention elections on Nov. 5 mattered: voters retained all three Democratic justices, preserving a five-to-two majority on the state’s high court. This keeps a forum historically receptive to map challenges and could influence any pre-census efforts after 2026 if partisan control in Harrisburg shifts. 
 

Pre-clearance is gone, and timing is everything: With no federal pre-clearance under Section 5, the key practical question in every state is the litigation calendar. If plaintiffs cannot secure a preliminary injunction or compressed remedy schedule by late spring 2026, new maps are likely to govern the full midterm cycle due to election-administration deadlines. This timing dynamic favors states that pass maps early and defend them aggressively. 

Tallying the Likely Seat Effects 

If GOP states’ maps stand in Texas, North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri, and Indiana follows through, Republicans could net 9 to 12 seats from map changes alone. If the Section 2 decision further narrows protections for minority-opportunity districts, the GOP ceiling could reach 15 to 18 additional seats across multiple states. 

If Democratic counter-moves land, California’s now-passed Prop 50, a targeted Virginia redraw, and selective tweaks in Maryland and New York could yield five to seven new Democratic seats, with an outside chance of up to 1 if every effort succeeds and court risk breaks their way. 

The Bottom Line 
The House battlefield is being reshaped in state capitols and courtrooms right now. For many companies and public entities, the more immediate risk is not ideological whiplash, it is district churn that changes who represents key facilities and projects. Planning for 2026 should include outreach strategies that anticipate member turnover in seats most exposed to remapping. 

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This document is intended to provide you with general information regarding 2025 election results. The contents of this document are not intended to provide specific legal advice. If you have any questions about the contents of this document or if you need legal advice as to an issue, please contact the attorneys listed or your regular Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP attorney. This communication may be considered advertising in some jurisdictions. The information in this article is accurate as of the publication date. Because the law in this area is changing rapidly, and insights are not automatically updated, continued accuracy cannot be guaranteed.