Gubernatorial Elections in 2025 and 2026: Early Signals for National Trends

Brownstein is watching and analyzing the two gubernatorial races this year—in New Jersey and Virginia—and looking ahead to the 36 gubernatorial contests in 2026.

Together, these races will shape state policy direction and provide important signals for national political momentum heading into the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election cycle. This report features our in-depth analysis of the current state of play and the competitiveness of all 38 gubernatorial races in these two cycles.

2025 Governors’ Races: Bellwethers in New Jersey and Virginia

America is watching as these two East Coast states choose new governors later this year and next. Both contests serve as early tests of each party’s messaging, fundraising capacity and grassroots organization—especially in suburban and exurban battlegrounds.

• New Jersey: With Gov. Phil Murphy term-limited, this open-seat race will test Democrats’ ability to hold a blue-leaning state in a shifting political environment. Taxes, affordability, transportation, school funding and economic competitiveness dominate the debate.
  
  
• Virginia: Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s departure creates a high-stakes contest in a perennial swing state. Virginia’s race will be the most-watched election in 2025 for indications of suburban voter behavior and partisan turnout strength ahead of 2026. Cost of living, reproductive rights and immigration are the three issues that are top of mind for Virginia voters.

2026 Outlook: A Wave of 36 Races

In 2026, voters in 36 states will elect governors, including in large-population and politically competitive open states such as Michigan, Georgia, Colorado, Ohio and Kansas. Key reelection races in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will also have broader implications for national politics. These races will determine control of state executive branches across a majority of the country. Key dynamics include:

• Nationalization of State Races: Expect federal issues—abortion, crime, education, federal funding, energy and immigration—to heavily influence outcomes.
  
  
• Policy Laboratories: Governors continue to drive national conversations on issues such as artificial intelligence (AI) regulation, climate, labor and health care.
  
  
• Power of Governors in 2028: The governors elected in 2026 will play outsized roles in setting party direction and shaping presidential fields. Democratic governors including Gavin Newsom in California, Wes Moore in Maryland, JD Pritzker in Illinois, Josh Shapiro in  Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and former VP candidate Tim Walz  in Minnesota are already using their seats to position themselves for the 2028 campaign.

Why These Elections Matter

As voters look to the 2028 presidential election cycle, the key issues and forces shaping the national political landscape are happening now. The results of the 2025 and 2026 gubernatorial elections will have lasting implications for the 2028 cycle and beyond:

• State-Level Policy Impacts: Governors wield significant authority over budgets, regulation and appointments.
  
  
• Redistricting Influence: Although most post-2020 maps are set, governors remain central players in election administration and legislative dynamics. California and Texas have demonstrated the significance of these roles.
  
  
• Political Momentum: These races will act as a national barometer of voter sentiment, with donor networks and advocacy groups already mobilizing in anticipation of 2026.

Brownstein’s Takeaway

The 2025 governors’ races will preview party strengths and weaknesses heading into an unprecedented 36-state cycle in 2026. Businesses, trade associations, investors and advocacy organizations should prepare now to engage in these contests, build relationships with emerging leaders and anticipate shifts in state policy direction. With deep relationships in all 50 states, we can help you navigate these challenges and opportunities.

This document is intended to provide you with general information regarding U.S. gubernatorial elections in 2025 and 2026. The contents of this document are not intended to provide specific legal advice. If you have any questions about the contents of this document or if you need legal advice as to an issue, please contact the attorneys listed or your regular Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP attorney. This communication may be considered advertising in some jurisdictions. The information in this article is accurate as of the publication date. Because the law in this area is changing rapidly, and insights are not automatically updated, continued accuracy cannot be guaranteed.