Post-Inaugural Gubernatorial Debate, Where the California Governor’s Race Stands

Gov. Gavin Newsom is term-limited, creating the state’s first open gubernatorial contest since 2018. The governor has so far declined to endorse a successor, as he continues to prepare for what appears to be a future 2028 presidential campaign. That backdrop set the stage for Tuesday’s gubernatorial debate at the Bayview Opera House in San Francisco, the first televised statewide forum this year to directly contrast candidates vying to succeed him.

The debate coincided with San José Mayor Matt Mahan’s formal entry into the race this week, introducing him for the first time to a wider statewide electorate. The event offered a first look at how each candidate is framing their governance style, priorities for California, and the state’s relationship with the federal government and the Trump administration. With a large share of voters still undecided, there is a crowded field with little contrast, no clear frontrunner and just under four months before the June primary.

As the Democratic field has taken shape, several prominent Democratic names who were once viewed as potential contenders have stepped aside:

• Vice President Kamala Harris confirmed last summer that she would not run, removing from the race what many California Democrats viewed as the strongest potential candidate.
  
  
• Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis announced she would end her gubernatorial campaign and instead seek election to the state treasurer’s office.
  
  
• Former Senate President pro Tem Toni Atkins withdrew from the race in September.
  
  
• Businessman Stephen Cloobeck ended his campaign and later endorsed Eric Swalwell, making him the only former gubernatorial candidate to endorse a rival so far.

While those decisions narrowed speculation, they have not meaningfully thinned the Democratic field. Among the Democrats who appeared on the debate stage:

• Antonio Villaraigosa, former Los Angeles mayor and Assembly speaker, emphasized his executive experience and positioned himself as a pragmatic problem-solver, centering on affordability and cost-of-living pressures. He highlighted cutting regulatory red tape, streamlining environmental review and zoning, investing in first-time homebuyer programs, maintaining in-state energy capacity, opposing a proposed billionaire tax, supporting completion of high-speed rail and rejecting continued efforts to phase out gas-powered vehicle sales by 2035.
  
  
• Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services and California attorney general, emphasized his statewide electoral background and positioned himself as prepared to push back against the Trump administration. He cited his record of suing Donald Trump more than 120 times and highlighted priorities including stronger enforcement of immigration and public safety laws, freezing utility rates and home insurance premiums pending review, targeted regulatory streamlining, rent stabilization, protecting health care access, stabilizing the clean energy transition, making child care more affordable and pushing back against corporate acquisition of housing. He expressed opposition to the current draft of a billionaire wealth tax, support for completing high-speed rail and support for continuing the phaseout of gas-powered vehicle sales.
  
  
• Betty Yee, state controller, presented her candidacy as a fiscal watchdog focused on oversight and accountability, emphasizing her role managing California’s finances and positioning herself as an underdog motivated by exceeding expectations. She argued for fixing the state budget to better serve working Californians and expressed support for a billionaire wealth tax, the completion of high-speed rail and the continued phaseout of gas-powered vehicle sales.
  
  
• Tony Thurmond, state superintendent of public instruction, framed education and equity as economic drivers, pointing to his implementation of universal preschool for four-year-olds and free school meals. He highlighted proposals to build 2 million housing units, expand affordable housing on surplus school district land totaling roughly 75,000 acres, provide a monthly tax credit to offset rising gas, grocery and housing costs, funded by a billionaire wealth tax, and restore universal health care coverage regardless of immigration status. He expressed support for completing high-speed rail and continuing the phaseout of gas-powered vehicle sales.
  
  
• Matt Mahan, San José mayor, used his first statewide debate appearance to introduce himself to a broader electorate, emphasizing restoring public trust, a pragmatic approach to the clean-energy transition that avoids prematurely eliminating energy sources before alternatives are fully viable, and an executive, innovation-oriented governing style. He expressed support for completing high-speed rail and continuing the phaseout of gas-powered vehicle sales. Instead of a billionaire tax, he believes the state should focus on closing loopholes used by billionaires.
  
  
• Tom Steyer, former presidential candidate, environmentalist and billionaire, highlighted his long-standing opposition to former President Trump, including launching a grassroots impeachment effort in 2017. He emphasized housing and utility affordability, calling for building 1 million homes, expanding manufactured housing to significantly reduce costs, targeting electric utility monopolies that overcharge ratepayers, and closing corporate tax loopholes—including real estate and income-shifting loopholes—to generate an estimated $15–$20 billion in additional state revenue. He expressed support for a billionaire wealth tax, the completion of high-speed rail and the continued phaseout of gas-powered vehicle sales.

A few additional Democratic candidates did not or were unable to participate; those candidates include:

• Former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter from Orange County is running to establish herself as the clear liberal choice in the Democratic field, with a campaign centered on affordability, corporate accountability and kitchen-table economic issues. While she was widely viewed as the early frontrunner, her campaign has been bruised by recent, widely circulated incidents that initially slowed her momentum. She has since overcome these setbacks and remains competitive.
  
  
• Eric Swalwell, current U.S. representative from Alameda County, did not appear on the debate stage due to a House vote on legislation to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement. His campaign continues to draw on his national profile as a former Trump impeachment manager and vocal critic of federal overreach.
  
  
• Ian Calderon, former assemblymember and majority leader, was likewise not in attendance; Calderon has been making a generational and pragmatic case focused on cost pressures facing working families and positioning himself as a younger alternative within the field.

The Democratic field continues to pursue distinct paths in this race, often anchored in regional fundraising operations and geography, reflecting a field that remains wide open.

Republicans are fielding a smaller but more clearly defined slate, though only one Republican candidate appeared on the debate stage:

• Steve Hilton, conservative commentator and former political adviser, framed himself as an outsider candidate, arguing California needs a fundamental break from one-party Democratic rule. He called for ending climate-related subsidies, responding more aggressively to fraud, and making the first $100,000 of income tax-free. Hilton proposed capping vehicle registration fees at $71, opposed a billionaire wealth tax, opposed completing high-speed rail, and opposed continuing the phaseout of gas-powered vehicle sales. Addressing Republican viability in the race, Hilton sharply criticized Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco for not attending the debate, urging voters to review Bianco’s record, including his prior support for Black Lives Matter, and arguing that Bianco’s candidacy risks splitting the Republican vote.
  
  
• Chad Bianco, Riverside County sheriff, did not participate in the debate. Bianco is running on a law-and-order platform emphasizing public safety, addressing homelessness, and frequently criticizing Sacramento and Democratic control of state government.

The most recent Emerson College poll underscores how fractured the race remains, though polling remains sparse; the last major survey was conducted in December and excluded newer candidate Mayor Mahan. With the top two polling candidates currently Republicans, polling scenarios increasingly suggest Democratic prospects of advancing to the top two will dwindle as long as the Democratic field remains crowded and shows few signs of consolidation or additional departures.

Emerson College Poll (Dec. 1–2) — Vote Share and Current Cash on Hand (COH) as of February 2:

• Chad Bianco (R): 13% | $1.9 million COH
  
  
• Steve Hilton (R): 12% | $2 million COH
  
  
• Eric Swalwell (D): 12% | $2.5 million COH
  
  
• Katie Porter (D): 11% | $3.2 million COH
  
  
• Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 5% | $3.4 million COH
  
  
• Tom Steyer (D): 4% | $11.2 million COH
  
  
• Xavier Becerra (D): 4% | $3.7 million COH
  
  
• Betty Yee (D): 2% | $535k COH
  
  
• Tony Thurmond (D): 2% | $477k COH
  
  
• Ian Calderon (D): 2% | $46k COH
  
  
• Undecided: 31%
  
  
• Would not vote / other: 4%

The primary election is scheduled for June 2, 2026, 117 days away as of today, with the top two vote-getters of either party advancing to the general election on Nov. 3. In the months ahead, debate performance, fundraising, endorsements, voter engagement and ultimately statewide name recognition are expected to play an outsized role in determining which two candidates ultimately break through.

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This document is intended to provide you with general information regarding California’s gubernatorial race. The contents of this document are not intended to provide specific legal advice. If you have any questions about the contents of this document or if you need legal advice as to an issue, please contact the attorneys listed or your regular Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP attorney. This communication may be considered advertising in some jurisdictions. The information in this article is accurate as of the publication date. Because the law in this area is changing rapidly, and insights are not automatically updated, continued accuracy cannot be guaranteed.